Race Preview ~ Atlanta Motor Speedway
2007 Atlanta – Race 33 of 36 – top-ten picks
NASCAR visits one of the most exciting tracks, Atlanta Motor Speedway, which is rich in historical finishes. It is also the fastest track where drivers start out on fresh tires averaging over 194 MPH.
Jimmie Johnson may not appear to be as good at Atlanta as he is at Lowe's, but has finished first or second in four of the last six races here and has podium finishes in half of his twelve starts. He has finished in the top-three in 16 of his 33 starts at the 1.5 mile quad-oval tracks and in one stretch from 2003 to Atlanta in 2007 he had top-eleven finishes in 21 of 22 races, with seven wins, five runner-up finishes and a 3.9 finish average. Including in the streak were podium finishes in 10 of 12 races and 15 of 21.
Even though he has only led 338 laps here, most of those have been in the last five races and he just might lead a huge percentage of laps on Sunday. He has led 1475 laps on the quad-ovals compared to Tony Stewart's 1772, but in ten less races. Jeff Gordon has led 413 laps more than Johnson, but in 39 more races.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished fourteenth in the last race here, but five of his previous ten starts have been podium finishes and nine on the previous eleven races were top-seven. He led 95 laps in last year's fall race, finishing third and he led 142 laps in the 2005 fall race, finishing fourth. He has top-eight finishes in seven of the last 12 quad-oval races and has led more than 95 laps -- on three occasions. After all he has been a top-five driver on many Sundays.
Jeff Gordon may join Johnson in putting a lot of pressure on Clint Bowyer this week if they continue their two-man show. Jeff Gordon has four wins and three runner-ups here, and he leads active drivers with 1050 laps led, 92 more than former track ace Bobby Labonte.
Tony Stewart led 121 laps and finished second the last race here and won the previous race leading 146 laps. The race prior to that he finished fifth and led 50 laps. He also led the most laps in three of the eight races prior to that. In his first start here he finished eleventh, but then went four races without finishing higher than fifteenth. In the twelve races since he has seven top-fives, two wins and two runner-ups. Eleven of those are top-nine. In nine of those races he led more than 33 laps and in five of those he led more than 109 laps. Twice in his career he has led more than 109 laps in three consecutive quad-oval races.
Kasey Kahne finished third, fifth and fifth in his first three starts here, but only led four laps. Two races later he led 85 laps and won his second career race, a race that Greg Biffle led 128 laps, but finished sixteenth. Kasey Kahne won the next three quad-oval races, leading 355 laps and beating Johnson in the last two of those, both at Lowe's.
Tony Stewart then beat Johnson at Atlanta and Texas and led 428 laps to Johnson's 28.
Mark Martin led 227 laps in the second race here in 2004, but spun late in the race and couldn't catch Johnson in the final sixteen laps. He didn't lead until lap 75, but dominated from there. He then finished fourth, third and second in the next three races here and led 43 laps in one race. He finished tenth in the first race here this season then finished third at Texas. From the 2004 race at Atlanta, to 2006 at Lowe's, he had top-five finishes in seven of ten quad-oval races. He may surface in the top-ten ¾ of the way through the race.
Greg Biffle finished 41st in the last race here, but would have had top-ten finishes in the previous six races if not for finishing sixteenth after leading 128 laps in 2006. He led 151 laps in the spring race here in 2004, but he hasn't been the same since parting with Crew Chief Doug Richart, who won a Championship with Dale Earnhardt Sr.
Kyle Busch doesn't have much merit here, but Hendrick cars have always been pretty good at Atlanta. He finished third at Lowe's and has top-six finishes in three of the last seven quad-oval races. He led 55 laps in the 600 in 2005, but finished 25th. Kyle Busch had three consecutive twelfth-place finishes here, so it isn't a long stretch for him to improve a couple of spots.
Matt Kenseth has finished in the top-five in three of the last four Atlanta races. At Lowe's two races ago he led 32 laps, but finished 32nd. The race prior to that at Lowe's he led 50 laps only to finish twelfth. But, in seven of the previous ten quad-oval races he has finished fifth or better. In 2006 he led 149 laps at Texas. This weekend's UFB award (Un-Finished Business) may belong to him. Mark Martin may be the other candidate.
Kurt Busch doesn't have great stats here like his brother and his best success was a streak of top-twelve finishes in five of six races from 2001-2004. He has led between 13 and 107 laps in the last five quad-oval races, but his best finish is eighth. He is looking for the UFB award from the 600 this year, where he led 107 laps. His win at Atlanta in 2002, where he led 84 laps, is his only top-five in thirteen starts.
Carl Edwards finished third, first and first in his first three starts here, and overall has finished top-seven in five of six starts, but hasn't led more than one lap in the last three. He has three wins and eleven top-ten finishes in seventeen quad-oval races and his 10.9 finish average is second to Johnson's 8.8. His fifth-place finish at Lowe's two races ago this year was his first finish better than seventh in the last seven quad-oval races. He might have last weekend's fiasco on his mind and might need to feint at one of his teammates after this race.
Ryan Newman is another Penske driver with only one top-five here, in eleven starts. He finished tenth in his first three starts, then fifth two races later. He led 58 laps the next race here, but finished seventeenth and in the last twelve quad-oval races he hasn't finished better than 23rd but once (18th). But, if he is around to challenge for the win at the end of the race, he knows how to throw down the fastest lap.
Clint Bowyer finished sixth in the last race here, but most of the better cars finished bad in that race. He does have top-six finishes in three of the last five quad-oval races, including second to Johnson at Lowe's. And he is not out of the Chase yet!
Jeff Burton has finished top-six in 6 of the last 9 quad-oval races, with three of the last six starts at Atlanta in eighth or better.
Denny Hamlin has only one top-ten finish in four starts, but has top-tens in 8 of 13 quad-ovals starts, only one better than seventh. He has only led one lap in the last seven races on these tracks.
Bobby Labonte has six wins and three runner-ups in a stretch of 17 races from 1995-2003, but has only led one lap in the last seven starts with a best finish of 12th. He might be able to bring back some of the magic since he does still run good at Lowe's where he has finished in the top-six in 13 of the last 22 races with only one finish worse than 18th.
Juan Montoya finished fifth here in his only start here and finished eighth at Texas.
Kevin Harvick won his first start here and then finished third in his next start, but hasn't finished better than 19th in the eleven starts since.
Casey Mears is in the #25 car which was one of the best cars in 2000 and 2001 when Jerry Nadeau piloted it. Nadeau won his first career race, over Dale Earnhardt Sr. in the fall of 2000, then out ran Dale Earnhardt Jr.. and Bobby Labonte over the last 100 laps or so in the 2001 fall race, only to run out of gas with a four-second lead and less than a mile to the checkers.
Brian Vickers also had decent success at the quad-oval tracks in the #25 car. He finished third at Lowe's in 2004 then led a race-high 98 laps in the 2005 Coca-Cola 600. In 2006 he finished tenth. If he makes the field he may be a top-ten threat since he also led 76 laps and finished fifth in this season's 600 in the #83 Toyota Red Bull car. He has finished 13th or better in 5 of last 7 races at Lowe's.
Jeff Gordon has nine wins and Johnson seven on the quad-oval tracks, but Johnson has done it in 33 starts and Jeff Gordon in 72. Labonte has eight wins, Mark Martin seven and Kasey Kahne, Tony Stewart and Jeff Burton four. Only Kasey Kahne, Tony Stewart, Edwards and Labonte have beaten Johnson at the end of a race.
Ones to watch: 1st - Jimmie Johnson
Top Five: 2nd – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
3rd – Jeff Gordon
4th – Tony Stewart
5th - Kasey Kahne
The Rest: 6th – Mark Martin
7th - Greg Biffle
8th - Kyle Busch
9th – Matt Kenseth
10th - Kurt Busch
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