Chase is not crystal clear, but Johnson likely to edge out Gordon
Nostradamus, master of all seers, wouldn't stake his reputation on the outcome of this one, I'd wager.
Chevy's Jimmie Johnson or Jeff Gordon: Who will be crowned NASCAR Nextel Cup champion Nov. 18?
(I'm overlooking Clint Bowyer, who'd have to win the last two Chase races and hope Johnson and Jeff Gordon are abducted by aliens to snatch it away from either of them.)
Thirty points separate the Hendrick Motorsports teammates with Phoenix and Homestead left to run.
Johnson -- the smiling assassin and defending Cup champion who leads Jeff Gordon, the four-time titlist -- is as ruthless as the late Dale Earnhardt in a tight finish.
First up is Phoenix, where Jeff Gordon won the pole and the race in April. But Johnson also is very good on the flat, fast and tricky one-mile oval. If someone has an advantage, it may be Johnson, whose win at Texas on Sunday was his third straight.
Then it's on to Homestead, in south Florida, the following weekend for the season finale, and chances are Johnson and Jeff Gordon will be within 20-40 points of each other.
Now this is where it gets even scarier.
Homestead is a 1.5-mile oval with palm trees in the infield and brightly painted grandstands. Roush Fenway Racing's Greg Biffle has won three successive Ford 400s at Homestead, and there's no reason to think he can't make it a fourth.
As for Johnson and Jeff Gordon, we'll let the stats do the talking:
The two have been squaring off against each other at Homestead since 2001, and their performances are eerily similar:
In 2001, Johnson finished 25th, Jeff Gordon 28th.
In 2002, Jeff Gordon finished fifth, Johnson eighth.
In 2003, it was Johnson in third and Jeff Gordon in fifth, and in 2004 Johnson finished second and Jeff Gordon third.
Jeff Gordon left Johnson in his dust in 2005, when he placed ninth and his teammate 40th. But last year, Johnson, while winning the championship, finished ninth and Jeff Gordon 24th.
Advantage: I really don't know.
However, I have a hunch Johnson -- thanks to the brilliance and poise of crew chief Chad Knaus -- will win his second title with a top-five effort at Homestead; Jeff Gordon will fall just short in a withering, late run to the checkered flag.
But as Nostradamus wrote in 1566, "I do but make bold to predict -- not that I guarantee the slightest thing at all."
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